Membership in the Democratic Party of Uzbekistan can get you fifteen years in prison. Your brother’s membership in an unofficial mosque can get you sent home in a body bag, minus your testicles, fingernails and front teeth. Islam Karimov presides over one of the region’s most brutal governments ... and over one of the region’s largest armies. He has earned a reputation for himself as Central Asia’s sandbox bully; he has mined Tajik and Kyrgyz land in an effort to fight “Islamic rebels” and regularly cuts off shipments of gas, oil and water to neighboring countries whenever annoyed. Still, he is less frightening than the Islamist opposition. For years Karimov has been promoting himself as a bulwark against the rise of Taliban-styled governments throughout the region. After September 11, he’s likely to have little trouble selling that core competency.

Islam and politics have walked hand in hand in this region for centuries. Some of the most famous cities of the Islamic world, Bukhara and Samarkand, lie within Uzbek territory. After declaring independence, Karimov took steps to ensure that Islam was recognized as the country’s “official” religion, and reopened mosques which had been closed since the Soviet era. Alas, it quickly became clear that many Mullahs were not interested in furthering Karimov’s plans for a Westernized Uzbekistan (think Turkey with a Russian accent... ). And so began a ruthless campaign against observant Moslems, a campaign which only intensified after a series of lethal terrorist attacks in Tashkent. Across Uzbekistan mosques were closed and “radicals” were sentenced to long prison terms. This has only served to intensify the resolve of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, particularly since Karimov has taken to labeling all opposition as “terrorists” and “Wahhabi extremists.”

An old Russian proverb described Uzbekistan as two-thirds desert and one-third cotton. Even today most arable land is dedicated to “white gold;” Uzbekistan is the world’s third largest producer of cotton. This holdover from the days of Stalinist agriculture has wreaked havoc with the environment. Pesticides, fertilizers and other chemicals are sprayed near schools, homes and hospitals. More important, the irrigation required for cotton has resulted in the destruction of the Aral Sea. The Aral has shrunk by over 50%, until today it consists of several highly saline lakes amidst a salt desert. In the region bordering the Aral, two-thirds of the population suffers from hepatitis, kidney failure, or throat cancer.

Both Karimov and the Islamist rebels have expressed expansionist desires. Karimov has declared himself ruler over all Uzbeks, not just those living in Uzbekistan. This could provide him with a pretext to invade the hotly-contested Fergana Valley, which is home to a sizeable population of ethnic Uzbeks. It might even give him an excuse to claim territory in Afghanistan. a fair number of Uzbeks live within Afghan borders and Gen. Dustum, one of the most notorious warlords in the Northern Alliance, is Uzbek. The IMU recently changed its name to the Islamic Movement of Turkestan to better reflect its goals – a pan-Islamic, pan-Turkic state covering Central Asia and portions of Russia and China.