He is given to camouflage uniforms and four-hour speeches about the “Revolution.”  His opponents accuse him of supporting left-wing terrorist rebels.  He makes fiery attacks on the “rancid oligarchy” and has proposed land reforms whereby every peasant “without exception has enough land to sow crops and produce.”  He has referred to himself as a “Maoist” and has compared his election to Mao Zedong.  No, he’s not that Marxist dictator.  Meet Hugo Chavez, President of Venezuela.

In 1992, Lt. Colonel Chavez, a paratrooper and baseball player, led a failed coup attempt against Venezuela’s government.  Released from prison in 1994, he decided to try gaining power via the ballot box.  Cobbling together a coalition of ex-Army officers and leftists, he proceeded to win a landslide election in December of 1998,  garnering 56% of the popular vote to the ruling party’s 9%.  Chavez appealed to the 80% of Venezuela’s population living in poverty.  He spoke in favor of an open government, one in which the people could participate.  His weekly radio program, “Hello President,” allows Venezuelans to speak to their leader, and he has become known for frequent unannounced public appearances.   His “Bolivarianism” takes its name from revolutionary Simon Bolivar, and is influenced by Marxism, Maoism, and standard-issue left wing Latin American populism.  

Not surprisingly, many compare Chavez to Castro.  Chavez denies these charges; in a recent speech, he angrily said that anyone comparing Venezuela to Cuba was “crazy.” Unlike Castro’s one-party socialist government, Venezuela is still a multiparty democracy with an opposition.  (In an interesting twist, Francisco Arias, one of Chavez’s associates in the 1992 coup, is now his leading opponent).  Chavez has also taken pains to stay neutral in the Colombian conflict; despite accusations to the contrary, it does not appear that Chavez has supported Marxist guerillas in Colombia.   Still, he makes many American and Latin American leaders uneasy.  Chavez has been critical of American foreign policy, and has made overtures toward China with a view of creating a “multipolar world” instead of a “one superpower” world.  He has also forged strong ties with Cuba; Venezuela is currently Havana’s largest trading partner.  

Venezuela is the world’s fourth-largest producer of oil; this has helped the Venezuelan economy, but has also made it dependent on world oil prices.  Chavez has made noises about nationalizing Venezuela’s oil industry but so far has not done so.  If he did, the United States would certainly begin funding an armed opposition, and might even intervene militarily.  Venezuela is America’s third-largest supplier of oil (after Saudi Arabia and Canada).  Chavez has also gained some influence among the OPEC nations, so American intervention could well lead to another oil embargo…especially given the currently rocky relations between America and most of the OPEC nations.

In an effort to shake off the recession which has paralyzed much of South America and bankrupted Argentina, Chavez recently unpegged the Venezuelan currency from the American dollar.  Some analysts feared huge devaluations; as of February 15, the bolivar has lost just 10% of its value.  This may stimulate the economy, or it may lead to staples and essentials rising in value (Venezuela imports much of its food).  Should the price of oil continue to drop, it’s possible that Chavez’s popularity will drop along with it.  The latest polls give him around 60% popular support, down from the 85% or so he enjoyed a year ago.  There has already been some capital flight, as rich Venezuelans have left in advance of what they see as an inevitable leftist takeover and nationalization.